Ilya Archakov

Publications
Canonical Representation of Block Matrices with Applications to Covariance and Correlation Matrices

with Peter Hansen

The Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming

Abstract     arXiv     Web Appendix

We obtain a canonical representation for block matrices. The representation facilitates simple computation of the determinant, the matrix inverse, and other powers of a block matrix, as well as the matrix logarithm and the matrix exponential. These results are particularly useful for block covariance and block correlation matrices, where evaluation of the Gaussian log-likelihood and estimation are greatly simplified. We illustrate this with an empirical application using a large panel of daily asset returns. Moreover, the representation paves new ways to regularizing large covariance/correlation matrices and to test block structures in matrices.

A New Parametrization of Correlation Matrices

with Peter Hansen

Econometrica, 89(4), 1699-1715, 2021

Abstract     Paper     arXiv     Web Appendix

We introduce a novel parametrization of the correlation matrix. The reparametrization facilitates modeling of correlation and covariance matrices by an unrestricted vector, where positive definiteness is an innate property. This parametrization can be viewed as a generalization of Fisher's Z-transformation to higher dimensions and has a wide range of potential applications. An algorithm for reconstructing the unique n×n correlation matrix from any vector in real space of dimensionality n(n-1)/2 is provided, and we derive its numerical complexity.

A Descriptive Study of High Frequency Trade and Quote Option Data from OPRA

with Torben Andersen et al.

Journal of Financial Econometrics, 19(1), 128-177, 2021

Abstract     Paper     SSRN     Web Appendix

This paper provides a guide to high frequency option trade and quote data disseminated by the Options Price Reporting Authority (OPRA). First, we present a comprehensive overview of the fragmented U.S. option market, including details on market regulation and the trading processes for all 15 constituent option exchanges. Then, we review the general structure of the OPRA dataset and present a thorough empirical description of the observed option trades and quotes for a selected sample of underlying assets that contains more than 25 billion records. We outline several types of irregular observations and provide recommendations for data filtering and cleaning. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of the high frequency option data with two empirical applications: option-implied variance estimation and risk-neutral density estimation. Both applications highlight the richer information content of the high frequency OPRA data relative to the widely used end-of-day OptionMetrics data.

A Markov Chain Estimator of Multivariate Volatility from High Frequency Data

with Peter Hansen, Guillaume Horel and Asger Lunde

In "The fascination of Probability, Statistics and Their Applications — In honour of Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen on his 80th birthday", pp. 361-394, Springer, 2016

Abstract     Paper

We introduce a multivariate estimator of financial volatility that is based on the theory of Markov chains. The Markov chain framework takes advantage of the discreteness of high-frequency returns. We study the finite sample properties of the estimation in a simulation study and apply it to high-frequency commodity prices.

Working papers
A New Method for Generating Random Correlation Matrices

with Peter Hansen and Yiyao Luo

Submitted

Abstract     arXiv

We propose a new method for generating random correlation matrices that makes it simple to control both location and dispersion. The method is based on a vector parameterization, γ=γ(C), which maps any distribution on d-dimensional Real space, where d = n(n-1)/2, to a distribution on the space of non-singular nxn correlation matrices. Correlation matrices with certain properties, such as being well-conditioned, having block structures, and having strictly positive elements, are simple to generate. We compare the new method with existing methods.

Local Mispricing and Microstructural Noise: a Parametric Perspective

with Torben Andersen, Gökhan Cebiroglu and Nikolaus Hautsch

Submitted

Abstract     Paper     Web Appendix

We extend the classic ”martingale-plus-noise” model for high-frequency returns to accommodate an error correction mechanism and endogenous pricing errors. It is motivated by (i) novel empirical evidence documenting that microstructure noise is interwoven with innovations to the efficient price; (ii) building a bridge between high-frequency econometrics and market microstructure models. We identify temporal pricing error corrections and noise endogeneity as complementary components driving high-frequency dynamics and inducing two separate regimes, characterized by the sign of the return serial correlation and an implied bias in realized variance estimates. We document frequent fluctuations between these regimes, which we associate with price discovery in a setting with incomplete information and learning. The model links critical concepts from high-frequency statistics and market microstructure theory, opening up new paths for volatility estimation.

A Multivariate Realized GARCH Model

with Peter Hansen and Asger Lunde

Submitted

Abstract     arXiv

We propose a novel class of multivariate Realized GARCH models that utilize realized measures of volatility and correlations. The key property of the model is a convenient parametrization of the correlation matrix that requires no additional structure to ensure positive definiteness. The correlation matrix is characterized by a vector, that can vary freely in the real vector space. A more parsimonious structure is often desired in practice, in particularly in high dimensional systems, and the framework facilitates simple and intuitive dimension reductions. We apply the model to returns of nine assets and illustrate a dimension reduction that arises from a natural block equicorrelation structure. Interestingly, we find that the empirical distribution of the transformed realized correlations is approximately Gaussian.

A Realized Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model with an Application to Crude Oil Futures Prices

with Bo Laursen

Abstract     Working Paper

We extend the popular dynamic Nelson-Siegel framework by introducing time-varying volatilities in the factor dynamics and incorporating the realized measures to improve the identification of the latent volatility state. The new model is able to effectively describe the conditional distribution dynamics of a term structure variable and can still be readily estimated with the Kalman filter. We apply our framework to model the crude oil futures prices. Using more than 150 million transactions for the large panel of contracts we carefully construct the realized volatility measures corresponding to the latent Nelson-Siegel factors, estimate the model at the daily frequency and evaluate it by forecasting the conditional density of futures prices. We document that the time-varying volatility specification suggested in our model strongly outperforms the constant volatility benchmark. In addition, the use of realized measures provides moderate, but systematic gains in density forecasting.

Work in progress
A Simple Parametric Shape for a Cross-section of Option Prices

with Nikolaus Hautsch and Mathias Pohl

Abstract

Motivated by systematic empirical regularities, we suggest a parsimonious parametric shape for cross-sections of option prices that i) does not violate arbitrage constraints for a given cross-section of strikes, ii) can be easily estimated with simple regressions, iii) naturally outweights an effect of potentially outlying or unreliable price observations. An empirical analysis performed on a range of underlying assets, maturities and trading days reveals that the estimated price shapes are largely supported by best national spreads at intraday frequencies.

A Factor Model with Realized Measures: Exploring Risk at High Granularity

with Peter Hansen and Asger Lunde

Abstract

We propose a novel approach to measure systematic and idyosincratic risks in equity markets. Asset returns and risk factors are modeled in a multiple time-series regression framework with GARCH-type dynamics for conditional variances and correlations, thus, implying temporal variation of the regression coefficients, or betas. The model incorporates information from realized measures constructed with high frequency data, which help to promtly update the latent covariance process and, hence, more accurately extract betas and idyosincratic variance components. Being consistent with the broad class of linear factor models, the new framework builds a bridge between the methods prevailing in asset pricing and high frequency literatures.

Finite Sample Properties of a Vector Representation of Correlation Matrices

with Peter Hansen

Abstract

We investigate the finite sample properties of a simple vector parametrization, γ=γ(C) of a nonsingular n×n correlation matrix, C. This new parametrization generalizes the Fisher transformation of a single correlation, to higher dimensions, n>2 (the two are identical when n=2). The Fisher transformation is variance-stabilizing and reduces skewness, which delivers good finite samples properties for the transformed sample correlation coefficient. We show that these characteristics perpetuate to higher dimensions with sample γ estimate, using simulated and empirical data. The sample distribution of γ is well approximated by its asymptotic Gaussian distribution. Moreover, its entries tend to be weakly correlated, and its asymptotic covariance matrix is relatively insensitive to C, which facilitates accurate estimation of the former and reliable feasible inference.

Intra-daily Volatility Flow: How Fast Does the Information Arrive?

Abstract

I investigate the rate at which information about the daily volatility arrives with the transaction data in course of a trading day. The contribution of this analysis is three-fold. First, I gauge how fast (after the market opening) the reasonable projection of the new daily volatility level can be constructed. Second, the framework provides a natural experimental field for the comparison of small sample properties of different types of estimators as well as their (very) short-run forecasting capability. Finally, I outline an adaptive modeling framework for volatility dynamics that allows time-varying weights for the different predictive signals in response to changing environment.