Courses in the winter semester 2021

040131 UK Introductory Econometrics (BA)

(UK, 4 hours per week, 8 ECTS)

Time and location:

Monday, 9:45-11:15, HS1 (later on-line)

Thursday, 8:00-9:30, HS14 (later on-line)

Starts: October 7, 2021

Course description: The course introduces the most common statistical methods that are used in empirical economics. This includes linear regression (ordinary least squares, generalized least squares, instrumental variables) in static and dynamic equations and the corresponding hypothesis tests (restriction tests as well as diagnostic tests). The basic literature used for the course is Jeffrey M. Wooldridge: Introductory Econometrics (South-Western, 5^th edition). The methods are highlighted in empirical applications using Stata and R.

Plan of the course: Assessment is based on three written tests and on assignments. Dates will be convened in class: first test will be in November, second test before Christmas, third test in the last unit in January. No alternative dates for the second and third tests can be provided. The first test can be taken another time in January for those who request this before Christmas. Tests carry weights of 35 %, 25%, 25% in the final grade. An additional 20 % of the final grade can be obtained from occasional homework assignments (each of them carries 10 % maximum) that can be done in groups of up to three students. A positive grade requires at least 50 % of the score of 100 and attendance at the first written test. Dropping the course without a grade is only possible before the first written test.

040211 KU Forecasting (MA)

(KU, 2 hours per week, 4 ECTS)

Time and location:

Thursday, 16:45-18:15, HS6 (later on-line)

Starts: October 7, 2021

Course description: The course aims at an understanding of currently used techniques for prediction in empirical economics. It focuses on the following topics:

(1) General introduction (Aims of forecasting, types of forecasts: technical extrapolation, time-series forecasts, theory- and model-based forecasts)
(2) Technical model-free extrapolation (exponential smoothing, ad-hoc prediction etc.)
(3) Univariate time-series techniques (one variable on its own)
(4) Multivariate time-series techniques (several variables together: vector autoregressions, cointegration)
(5) Criteria for assessing forecasting accuracy

Plan of the course: A written closed-book test (40% weight) and a small empirical forecasting project (60%). The empirical project is elaborated by participants, preferably in small groups of up to three participants. A positive grade on the course requires taking part in the test and at least 50% of the maximum achievable score.

Reading list:

- Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry: Forecasting Economic Time Series. Cambridge University Press.
- Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry: Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series. Cambridge University Press.
- Michael P. Clements: Evaluating Econometric Forecasts of Economic and Financial Variables. Palgrave-Macmillan.
- Philip H. Franses, Dick van Dijk, Anne Opschoor: Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting. Cambridge University Press.
- Rob J. Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos: Forecasting: principles and practice. On-line open access.
- David Hendry, Jennifer Castle, Michael Clements: Forecasting

040216 VO Macroeconomics (MA)

VO (2 hours per week, 4 ECTS)

Language of instruction: English

Time and location:

Monday, 13:15-14:45

Because of the current regulations, this course is done virtually (here, they call this “digitally”).

Starts: October 4, 2021

Course description: The course covers topics in the realm of macroeconomics that will help students understand and analyze the macroeconomic performance of countries both in the long run and at business-cycle frequencies.

This lecture course reviews material on macroeconomics that participants know from their bachelor studies and aims at deepening this knowledge. The textbook "Macroeconomics: Institutions, Instability, and the Financial System" (Wendy Carlin & David Soskice; Oxford University Press) serves as the main literature for this course. Topics to be covered are:

1. The demand side of the economy

2. The supply side of the economy

3. Monetary policy and the three-equations model

4. Banking and money

5. The open economy

6. Demand and supply in the open economy

If time constraints are encountered, section 4 will be skipped.