**Course
descriptions for the winter semester 2015/2016**

**040131
Introductory econometrics**

UK,
4 hours per week (8 ECTS)

Language of instruction: **English**

**Time and location:**

**Monday****, ****16:45-18:15**, Hörsaal 6, Oskar
Morgenstern Platz

**Wednesday****, 18:30-20:00**, Hörsaal 6, Oskar Morgenstern Platz

(at some dates different rooms and times)

**Starts**: October 5, 2015

**Course description: **The course** **provides an introduction to the most common
statistical methods that are used in empirical economics. This includes linear
regression (ordinary least squares, generalized least squares, instrumental
variables) and the corresponding hypothesis tests (restriction tests as well as
diagnostic tests). The basic literature used for the course is **Jeffrey M. Wooldridge: Introductory
Econometrics **(South-Western, 4^{th} edition). The methods are highlighted in empirical
applications using Stata.

**Plan of the course**:
Assessment is based on three written tests in the last units of October,
November, and January. No alternative dates for these tests can be provided.
The tests carry increasing weights of 25 %, 35 %, 45 %
in the final grade (which includes a 5 % bonus). A positive grade requires at
least 50 % of the maximum achievable score of 100 and attendance at the first written
test. Dropping the course without a grade is not possible after the first
written test.

**040064 Forecasting**

UK, 2 hours per week (4 ECTS)

Language of instruction: **English**

**Time and location:**

**Tuesday, 13:15-14:45,**
Hörsaal 5, Oskar Morgenstern Platz

**Starts**: October
6, 2015

**Course description**: The course aims at an
understanding of currently used techniques for prediction in empirical
economics. We focus on the following topics:

*exponential
smoothing*, ad-hoc prediction etc.)

In line with the course form UK, the evaluation should be
based on several parts. The course grade is determined by a weighted average of
a written test (in early December, 40 %) and a lesser empirical
forecasting project or a short presentation of some advanced piece of
literature that is related to econometric forecasting (60 %).
Presentations take place in the time after the written test. For empirical
projects, presentations are not mandatory but they carry an additional 5 %
bonus.

**Clements** and David F. **Hendry**: **Forecasting Economic Time
Series**. Cambridge University Press.

**Clements** and David F. **Hendry**:
**Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series**. Cambridge
University Press.

**Clements**: **Evaluating
Econometric Forecasts of Economic and Financial Variables.** Palgrave-Macmillan.

**390055 Econometrics of Seasonality (PhD-E)**

UK, 2 hours per week (4 ECTS)

Language of instruction: **English**

**Time and location:**

**Monday, 11:30-13:00,**
Seminarraum 3, Oskar Morgenstern Platz

**Starts: October 5, 2015 **

**Description of course contents**:

**“The Econometric Analysis of
Seasonal Time Series” by Eric Ghysels and Denise R.
Osborn** (Cambridge University Press, 2001). Another
related book is **Philip H. Franses and Richard Paap:
“Periodic Time Series Models”** (Oxford University Press, 2004). In
particular, the following issues will be addressed:

1.
Introduction to seasonal processes (basic
concepts of diverse models of seasonality)

2.
Deterministic
seasonality (seasonal dummies, tests with dummy seasonality as the null
hypothesis, e.g. the Canova-Hansen test)

3.
Seasonal
unit-root processes (seasonal random walk, tests with complex unit roots as
their null, e.g. the HEGY test)

4.
Periodic
models

5.
Seasonal adjustment