infile ur using uryear.txt
generate tt = _n+1949
tsset tt, yearly
twoway (connected ur tt)
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tssmooth dexponential urdes = ur, parms(0.3) forecast(8)
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twoway (connected ur tt)(connected urdes tt)
generate lint = _n
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reg ur lint in 1/31
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predict urhat
generate lth = urhat in 1/31
generate tth = urhat in 1/31
generate urdesh = tth
local ii=2
while `ii'<=62{
quiet replace lth = 0.3*ur+0.7*l.lth in `ii'/`ii'
quiet replace tth = 0.3*lth+0.7*l.tth in `ii'/`ii'
quiet replace urdesh = (2+0.3/0.7)*l.lth-(1+0.3/0.7)*l.tth in `ii'/`ii'
local ii = `ii'+1
}
local ii=63
while `ii'<=70{
local jj=`ii'-62
quiet replace urdesh = (2+`jj'*0.3/0.7)*l`jj'.lth-(1+`jj'*0.3/0.7)*l`jj'.tth in `ii'/`ii'
local ++ii
}
list ur urdes urdesh tth
twoway (connected ur tt)(connected urdes tt)(connected urdesh tt)
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twoway (connected ur tt)(connected urdesh tt)(connected lth tt)(connected tth tt)
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