This is Robert's teaching page. It should contain course descriptions for all lecture courses, some links to older material, and announcements that serve as a means of communicating short-run changes to course participants.

[Latest update 29/11/2021]

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Courses in the winter semester 2021

General comment: Latest news are rather depressing again, as the government has imposed a ‘lockdown’ on their subjects. Because of this debatable measure, there will be modifications during the envisaged time period from Nov 22 to Dec 13: (a) on-site courses will be done on-line, which includes any planned tests; (b) office hours will be on-line only. Please rest assured that, within the legal constraints, I am going to do anything in my institutional and legal possibilities to get courses and exams back to the physical university buildings. This is important for the time after Dec 13, contingent on the government keeping to their promises of ending the lockdown by that date.

040131 UK Introductory Econometrics (BA)

(UK, 4 hours per week, 8 ECTS)

Time and location:

Monday, 9:45-11:15, HS1 (currently on-line)

Thursday, 8:00-9:30, HS14 (currently on-line)

Starts: October 7, 2021

Course description: The course introduces the most common statistical methods that are used in empirical economics. This includes linear regression (ordinary least squares, generalized least squares, instrumental variables) in static and dynamic equations and the corresponding hypothesis tests (restriction tests as well as diagnostic tests). The basic literature used for the course is Jeffrey M. Wooldridge: Introductory Econometrics (South-Western, 5^th edition). The methods are highlighted in empirical applications using Stata and R.

Plan of the course: Assessment is based on three written tests and on assignments. Dates will be convened in class: first test will be in November, second test before Christmas, third test in the last unit in January. No alternative dates for the second and third tests can be provided. The first test can be taken another time in January for those who request this before Christmas. Tests carry weights of 35 %, 25%, 25% in the final grade. An additional 20 % of the final grade can be obtained from occasional homework assignments (each of them carries 10 % maximum) that can be done in groups of up to three students. A positive grade requires at least 50 % of the score of 100 and attendance at the first written test. Dropping the course without a grade is only possible before the first written test.

040211 KU Forecasting (MA)

(KU, 2 hours per week, 4 ECTS)

Time and location:

Thursday, 16:45-18:15, HS6 (currently on-line)

Starts: October 7, 2021

Course description: The course aims at an understanding of currently used techniques for prediction in empirical economics. It focuses on the following topics:

(1) General introduction (Aims of forecasting, types of forecasts: technical extrapolation, time-series forecasts, theory- and model-based forecasts)
(2) Technical model-free extrapolation (exponential smoothing, ad-hoc prediction etc.)
(3) Univariate time-series techniques (one variable on its own)
(4) Multivariate time-series techniques (several variables together: vector autoregressions, cointegration)
(5) Criteria for assessing forecasting accuracy

Plan of the course: A written closed-book test (40% weight) and a small empirical forecasting project (60%). The empirical project is elaborated by participants, preferably in small groups of up to three participants. A positive grade on the course requires taking part in the test and at least 50% of the maximum achievable score.

Reading list:

- Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry: Forecasting Economic Time Series. Cambridge University Press.
- Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry: Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series. Cambridge University Press.
- Michael P. Clements: Evaluating Econometric Forecasts of Economic and Financial Variables. Palgrave-Macmillan.
- Philip H. Franses, Dick van Dijk, Anne Opschoor: Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting. Cambridge University Press.
- Rob J. Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos: Forecasting: principles and practice. On-line open access.
- David Hendry, Jennifer Castle, Michael Clements: Forecasting

040216 VO Macroeconomics (MA)

VO (2 hours per week, 4 ECTS)

Language of instruction: English

Time and location:

Monday, 13:15-14:45

Because of the current regulations, this course is done virtually (here, they call this “digitally”).

Starts: October 4, 2021

Course description: The course covers topics in the realm of macroeconomics that will help students understand and analyze the macroeconomic performance of countries both in the long run and at business-cycle frequencies.

This lecture course reviews material on macroeconomics that participants know from their bachelor studies and aims at deepening this knowledge. The textbook "Macroeconomics: Institutions, Instability, and the Financial System" (Wendy Carlin & David Soskice; Oxford University Press) serves as the main literature for this course. Topics to be covered are:

1. The demand side of the economy

2. The supply side of the economy

3. Monetary policy and the three-equations model

4. Banking and money

5. The open economy

6. Demand and supply in the open economy

If time constraints are encountered, section 4 will be skipped.

Course descriptions for past semesters can be accessed by links beneath this line:

Summer semester 2021 Winter semester 2020

Summer semester 2020 Winter semester 2019

Summer semester 2019 Winter semester 2018

Summer semester 2018 Winter semester 2017

Summer semester 2017 Winter semester 2016

Summer semester 2016 Winter semester 2015

Summer semester 2015 Winter semester 2014

Winter semester 2013

Summer semester 2013 Winter semester 2012

Summer semester 2012 Winter semester 2011

Summer semester 2011 Winter semester 2010

Summer semester 2010 Winter semester 2009

Summer semester 2009

Summer semester 2008 Winter semester 2007

Summer semester 2007 Winter semester 2006

Summer semester 2006 Winter semester 2005

Summer semester 2005 Winter semester 2004

Summer semester 2004 Winter semester 2003

Summer semester 2003 Winter semester 2002

Since 2012, course grades do not appear on these pages, for reasons of data protection. Participants are always informed via e-mail.

Grades from the era before 2012 can be accessed here.

News

Regarding the continuing coronavirus problem, of course I am obliged to follow the rules and instructions that are being announced for the whole university. Virtual meetings with students are possible, I suggest using skype. Whereas distance teaching can be an interesting challenge, distance examinations by construction do not really satisfy. I hope that tests and exams at the university location will become feasible soon.

General information for all courses

If you have any paper material for me (such as homework assignments or forms), please leave it with our administration. Never leave any material with other faculty.

In case you cannot attend a test (not an exam; there are special regulations for no-show at exams) for important reasons or you are unable to be present at any other dated event within a course, please give me notice via e-mail immediately. I expect such notifications to arrive within three days after the event that you missed.

Course information for 040131 UK Introductory Econometrics

· In the first unit on October 7, we encountered the expected technical issues but they were finally resolved. The course outline as planned above was generally confirmed.

· Course material will be available on the Moodle system.

· Unfortunately, the unit on October 11 was not recorded. I consider uploading a short summary video instead. The unit on October 21 was recorded but the video is unsatisfactory.

· In the unit on October 14, the date for the first midterm was set at November 22, 2021. Material for the test was everything taught until and including (t.o.m.) November 8.

· A first homework assignment (on the simple regression model) was due November 10, 2021. Participants have been informed on the results.

· From October 26, 2021, space restrictions in lecture rooms have been lifted. Under these guidelines, teaching on Thursdays happens in HS 14 and needs no second room and no room-to-room streaming. Unfortunately, on November 22 new regulations have been implemented and in-person teaching has been interrupted.

· The second test will take place on December 13, 2021.

· Note that there are no course units on November 15 and on November 18, as rooms are not available. Next unit following November 11 is the test on November 22.

· Following current guidelines, the first test will be an on-line test. Please consider Moodle, test problems are available Nov 22, 9:30am, but officially starts 15min later. Your solutions should be uploaded by 11:15am, but uploads will be tolerated until 11:30am.

· Participants have been informed on the results of the first test. According to current regulations, unfortunately also the second test will be an on-line test. The same holds for the lecture course, as participants have already been informed via e-mail. I really hope that it will be possible to return to physical presence as soon as possible.

· Due to a clash in commitments, no course unit on December 6. As a replacement, a video will be uploaded on Moodle after December 2.

Course information for 040216 VO Macroeconomics

· All sessions are recorded and available on the Moodle system. There you also find the slides for the course. These slides define the material that is relevant for exams.

· Due to a clash in commitments, there is no course unit on December 6. I will try and substitute this by an asynchronous video if necessary.

Course information for 040211 KU Forecasting

· In the first unit on October 7, the course outline as described was generally confirmed. The data for the written test will probably be December 16, 2021.

· Course material is available on the Moodle system.

· Note that there is no course unit on November 18, as the room is not available. Note the room change from November 25.

· Following current guidelines, this course is done on-line on Nov 25, Dec 2, Dec 9.